No. 69 – February 2016
Author: Marcelo Gullo
Direction of Affairs
Reindustrialization of the United States
Slowing of the Chinese Economy
Which will be the most probably international scenario for the next ten-thirty years? This is the question approached in the paper. Three dimensions allow us to analyze the matter: culture, economy (internationally considered) and military policy, all of them closely interrelated, influencing each other. As cultural dimension is the most important in the sense that guides the others, we say that the West, despite its way of life has a worldwide reach, is sinking into the worst crisis of values remembered in history, situation that allows a probably replace for other values, especially in Europe. Economically, the international financial powers not only keep minor states under control but also try to keep the biggest ones under their power. Politically, the exceptions may be China and, principally, the USA, that develops a policy to keep his national state under control. We also conclude that the USA policy may have success because of the manipulation of the new source of energy: the shale oil and gas, that in the long term and through the methods we describe have big chances not only to keep the political control of the state but its position of leading power in the world.